METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIEW - IRAQ

May, 2020

This document presents a short overview of the methodology and guiding principles of the Return Index. Further details on how the Return Index was constructed in Iraq by delving into its most important building blocks, as well as discussing lessons learned during the design and implementation process, are available in the report “Building Blocks of the Return Index in Iraq”.

BUILDING BLOCKS OF THE RETURN INDEX IN IRAQ

April, 2020

This report aims to provide general insights on how the Return Index was constructed in Iraq by delving into its most important building blocks, as well as discussing lessons learned during the design and implementation process. The report covers two aspects: (a) the indicator framework design with statistical modelling, and (b) the data analysis and dissemination. Both the building blocks and lessons learned can be used as blueprints to replicate the Return Index in other countries and displacement crises.

As more people return to their places of origin than remain displaced in Iraq, it is necessary to know the severity of conditions in the locations to which they are returning, how this changes over time, and finally, which locations have limited returns and why, to shape strategies for intervention and resource allocation.

While population and location figures highlight the significant number of people in Iraq who may be in need of assistance upon return, they do not shed light on what type of assistance is needed, who needs it, and where, to prevent secondary displacement or prolonged residence in poor physical and/or social conditions.

Thus, a more precise tool is needed to understand the ‘quality of returns’ in Iraq and to this end IOM DTM, the Returns Working Group, and Social Inquiry developed the Return Index. This tool serves as a means of measuring severity of conditions in areas of return to allow partners to better strategize for resources and operations in vulnerable areas or to mitigate risks of push/pull factors for a more specific set of coherent interventions that bridge humanitarian, recovery, and stabilisation needs.

To measure the severity of conditions in each location of return, the Return Index is based on 16 indicators grouped into two scales:
(i) livelihoods and basic services,
(ii) social cohesion and safety perceptions.

A regression model is used to assess the impact of each of the indicators in facilitating or preventing returns and to calculate scores for two scales. For example, the model tests how much less likely a location where no agricultural activities have recovered is to have returns compared to a location where these activities have recovered.

To compute an overall severity index, the scores of the two scales are combined. The index ranges from 0 (all essential conditions for return are met) to 100 (no essential conditions for return are met). Higher scores denote more severe living conditions for returnees. The scores of the severity index can be grouped into three categories: ‘low’ severity conditions, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ (which also includes the identified ‘very high’ locations).

Response options of 16 indicators also can be grouped into three categories of severity: 'low', 'medium' and 'high'.